Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece

Abstract. Forest fires constitute a major environmental and socioeconomic hazard in the Mediterranean. Weather climate are among main factors influencing forest fire potential. As danger is expected to increase under changing climate, seasonal forecasting of meteorological conditions conductive paramount importance for implementing effective prevention policies. The aim current study provide high-resolution (∼9 km) probabilistic forecasts, utilizing Canadian Fire Index (FWI) Attica region, one most fire-prone regions Greece Mediterranean, employing fifth-generation ECMWF system (SEAS5). Results indicate that, depending on lead time forecast, both FWI ISI (Initial Spread Index) present statistically significant high discrimination scores can be considered reliable predicting above-normal conditions. When comparing year-by-year predictions with historical occurrence recorded by Hellenic Service database, forecasts skilful identifying years number occurrences. Overall, its subcomponents potentially exploited regional authorities management regarding preparedness resources allocation.